Mets lineup projection: Where Francisco Linor fits in (2024)

The Mets made the biggest splash they could make this winter on Thursday, adding shortstop Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco in a six-player deal with Cleveland.

So what next?

“We have to take a step back, evaluate the team, evaluate the market, see what comes our way and see where the market shifts,” general manager Jared Porter said Thursday. “It’s not really moving at this point. I feel like we’re creating a roster that has some versatility to it where we’re able to plug different holes in different ways. A lot of that is going to be driven by the market.”

Let’s use this time, then, to take that step back and evaluate where the Mets are. If the season were to start tomorrow, what would their roster look like, and what does that tell us about where their needs are now?

As a pitcher who had to face Lindor in the AL Central over the last half-decade, Trevor May was among the most excited Mets about Thursday’s news.

When you go over the potential lineup in your head… pic.twitter.com/MV2GUE7voL

— Trevor “IamTrevorMay” May (@IamTrevorMay) January 7, 2021

It’s proper that his excitement extends to the entire offense. New York’s hitters last year were better than most people realized; the Mets’ struggles with runners in scoring position meant they finished 13th in runs per game despite being in the top four in the sport in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. So adding a well-balanced switch-hitter to that order, alongside a catcher who’s been on an offensive upswing, creates the best on-paper offense for New York since the 2006 division winner.

This is what the Mets’ lineup could look like even without a DH. (The stats here and throughout this story cover the last three seasons, because I feel that’s a more representative sample than the 60-game 2020 season.)

If the National League includes a DH as the Mets hope, they can shift Alonso there, Nimmo to left field and play a more natural center fielder — who isn’t yet in the organization.

There are various ways to configure that lineup, and almost none of them are bad. Each of the top six hitters has posted an OPS easily over .800 over the last three seasons, and the on-base percentages in particular are strong throughout the lineup. As a switch-hitter, Lindor provides some helpful balance to a group that otherwise leans to the left.

But if the Mets rolled this lineup out against Max Scherzer tomorrow, they’d have reason to feel pretty good.

Catchers

Also on the 40-man roster: Ali Sánchez, Patrick Mazeika
Other names to know: Bruce Maxwell, David Rodriguez

The Mets eschewed a high-priced pursuit of J.T. Realmuto this winter, opting instead for a four-year pact with James McCann. In doing so, they’re banking on the veteran, who was non-tendered by the rebuilding Tigers after the 2018 season, carrying over many of the strides he made both offensively and defensively in the last two years. New York also likes that, for a catcher his age, McCann doesn’t have a ton of mileage on his body. The 30-year-old has caught nearly 1,000 fewer innings in the big leagues than Realmuto. Of course, that cuts both ways: He also has less of a track record of starter-level durability, starting more than 105 games in a season just once in his career.

That opens up opportunity for McCann’s backup. Tomás Nido has long been considered a solid defensive backstop, but his bat has lagged behind at the major-league level. Prior to coming down with COVID-19 last season, Nido had shown some encouraging signs after reworking his swing last winter. But that was over just 26 plate appearances for the season.

The Mets have Ali Sánchez and Patrick Mazeika on the 40-man as depth, with both seeing cups of coffee last season. Former Oakland catcher Bruce Maxwell has been invited to major-league spring training, and the Mets have long made it a habit to extend an invitation to René Rivera as well. Doing so again — or with an experienced player like Rivera — would make sense.

Infielders

Also on the 40-man roster: None
Other names to know: Wilfredo Tovar, Jake Hager, Luis Carpio, Carlos Cortes, Will Toffey

Few teams in the sport can boast the kind of offensive firepower the Mets can place on the infield dirt in 2021. Lindor’s addition gives them a two-way superstar while Jeff McNeil should actually see time at his natural position on the infield after being pushed to third base and the outfield each of the last two seasons.

J.D. Davis at third base remains a question mark. He’s an offensive weapon, but his bat took a step back in 2020 when compared to 2019, and Davis needs to really hit to overcome his defensive shortcomings. Despite a strong start last season, Davis was rated the sport’s worst glove at the hot corner by Statcast last season. On Thursday, Porter pointed to the possibility of further improvement there.

“One thing that sometimes is overlooked is just the importance and the value of player development at the major-league level,” he said. “J.D. Davis is an incredibly hard worker from everything I’ve heard. We have really good coaches — infield coach Gary DiSarcina and outfield coach Tony Tarasco. Those guys are going to challenge J.D. to improve his overall defense every day and become a very good, well-rounded player … We have confidence that J.D.’s going to become a more consistent defender and be able to help us on both sides of the ball.”

That’s all well and good, but Davis has a long mountain to climb to even get to league-average. There are a lot of second and third basem*n on the market, and bringing in one to at least compete with Davis or provide additional infield depth would be a good idea.

Luis Guillorme is excellent to have as a utility player, especially if his bat continues to make the steps forward it did in 2020. His role is probably bigger today than it was yesterday. Beyond Guillorme, the Mets picked up Robel Garcia on waivers from Cincinnati in October and signed José Peraza to a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training. This is thus an area that could be fortified with more depth options.

Outfielders

Also on the 40-man roster: None
Other names to know: Mallex Smith, Johneshwy Fargas, Drew Ferguson

I’m listing McNeil, Smith and Davis a second time, since they’ve all gained experience in the outfield over the last two seasons.

Center field is the obvious area of need here, and for the first time in a while, there are legitimate pursuable options for New York. George Springer is the high-priced one in free agency, and the comments from Porter and team president Sandy Alderson Thursday made it sound like Springer has moved from a primary target to a secondary one with the Lindor trade. The Mets will take him, but on their terms.

Jackie Bradley Jr. in free agency or Kevin Kiermaier in a trade would give New York a Gold Glove-caliber glove in center, completing an overhaul of the club’s up-the-middle defense in a single winter.

Of course, adding someone in center to push Nimmo to left works a lot easier if there’s more certainty about a universal DH. If there’s no clarity about the DH, it might be harder to sign a player like Bradley without being able to guarantee everyday playing time.

At the moment, Guillermo Heredia would be the backup center fielder, playing the right-handed bat/defensive replacement role filled last season by Jake Marisnick.

If there’s no DH, Smith is probably the Opening Day left fielder, even as Alderson said Thursday that’s “not ideal.” If there is a DH, New York absolutely needs another starting-level player.

The Mets have been exceptionally shallow in the outfield the last several years, and this is an area that could definitely use backup options that aren’t already slated to be infield starters.

The Bench

Nido, Guillorme and Heredia feel like surer things here while Garcia and Peraza are likely placeholders for outside additions. Bringing in another potential starting infielder and a center fielder would push a good player or two to the bench.

The Starting Rotation

Also on the 40-man roster: Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, Franklyn Kilomé, Corey Oswalt, Sam McWilliams, Thomas Szapucki
Other names to know: Jerad Eickhoff, Harol Gonzalez, Oscar De La Cruz

Would the Mets feel good rolling out this rotation on Opening Day?

“I’d be comfortable,” Porter said Thursday. “But of course there’s never enough. We’re going to keep trying to get more.”

The addition of Carrasco makes it likelier, to me at least, that New York enters spring training with David Peterson, Steven Matz and maybe Seth Lugo competing for two rotation spots — with Noah Syndergaard looming to replace one of them come the summer. That’s a decent spot to be in, but there are concerns with it. Matz was very bad in 2020. Peterson’s career high in innings is 128, and he could probably benefit from an occasional rest coming off an abbreviated 2020 season that included time down with a dead arm. Lugo is valuable in the bullpen, and it’s probably unreasonable to expect him to throw 160 innings as a full-time starter, either. That should be a concern for every team and every starting pitcher, in fact.

All this means the Mets should remain interested in the back-end starter market, as Porter said.

The Bullpen

Also on the 40-man roster: Jacob Barnes, Drew Smith, Daniel Zamora, Sam McWilliams
Other names to know: Jerry Blevins, Arodys Vizcaino, Trevor Hildenberger, Tom Windle, Ryley Gilliam

The glaring need is for some left-handed presence here — with apologies to Daniel Zamora and Jerry Blevins, both of whom have been affected by the three-batter minimum. Brad Hand is not the only option there, with Justin Wilson also a free agent. The Mets could also look to bring back Chasen Shreve, whom they didn’t tender in December.

Including Lugo as a reliever gives the Mets a really strong half-dozen arms from the right side, and it would remain surprising to me if New York won an aggressive bidding process for Liam Hendriks. I think May’s is the biggest reliever contract they’ll give out this winter, and I think that’s fine.

Brad Brach will enter spring training as a frontrunner for the Opening Day roster thanks to his guaranteed contract, but his rough finish to 2020 — he walked eight of the last nine men he faced — should force him to compete for that spot. Robert Gsellman is better cast as a swingman than as a set-up man, and Drew Smith has looked good for stretches at the big-league level. It is not a bad thing for them to start the season in the minor leagues.

As a minor-league free agent signed to a major-league deal, Sam McWilliams was an interesting offseason addition who could play a role sometime this season but shouldn’t be considered an Opening Day frontrunner at this point. McWilliams could also figure into starting depth as well.

More reading

• Relentless. Ruthless. Genius. The many sides of Steve Cohen

• Roundtable: Our writers weigh on the blockbuster deal

• Rosenthal: Francisco Lindor trade shows the new Mets can be a big-market bully

• Law: The Mets make their first big splash by landing two stars

(Photo: Ron Schwane / Getty Images)

Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton